Last Person Alive Thought Experiment

Have been reading Derren Brown’s ‘Happy‘ – an excellent rollercoaster philosophy ride from the Greek classics to the present on the building blocks of true, sustainable, healthy, happiness.

He cites a thought experiment from Professor William Irvine’s book ‘On Desire‘. Highlighting the amount of time, effort, money we spend doing things to maintain and create a public image of ourselves to impress others – and it’s absolute futility. Reminded me of Dave Ramsey’s quote “we buy things we don’t need with money we don’t have to impress people we don’t like.”

This is the thought experiment. You may be surprised by the results.

It is only a slight exaggeration to say we live for other people— that the bulk of our time, energy, and wealth is spent creating and maintaining a certain public image of ourselves. The best way to appreciate the truth of this claim is to consider how our behavior would change if other people vanished.

Suppose you woke up one morning to discover that you were the last person on earth: during the night, aliens had spirited away everyone but you. Suppose that despite the absence of other people, the world’s buildings, houses, stores, and roads remained as they had been the night before. Cars were where their now-vanished owners had parked them, and gas for these cars was plentiful at now-unattended gas stations. The electricity still worked. It would be a world like this world, except that everyone but you was gone. You would, of course, be very lonely, but let us ignore the emotional aspects of being the last person, and instead focus our attention on the material aspects.

In the situation described, you could satisfy many material desires that you can’t satisfy in our actual world. You could have the car of your dreams. You could even have a showroom full of expensive cars. You could have the house of your dreams—or live in a palace. You could wear very expensive clothes. You could acquire not just a big diamond ring but the Hope Diamond itself. The interesting question is this: without people around, would you still want these things? Would the material desires you harbored when the world was full of people still be present in you if other people vanished? Probably not.

Without anyone else to impress, why own an expensive car, a palace, fancy clothes, or jewelry? If you found yourself alone in a materially abundant world, chances are your desires would take a utilitarian turn. You might try living in a palace, but move out and take up residence in a dwelling that was emotionally cozier and easier to keep clean. You might try expensive suits but revert to clothes that were more comfortable. Indeed, you might even stay in your pyjamas all day long or, on fine spring days, walk around in your underwear or in the nude. You might acquire an expensive wristwatch, only to realize that without other people to meet, you don’t need to know what time it is.

Your life would also change in more mundane ways. For one thing, if you are a woman, why wear makeup? Most makeup, after all, is worn not for the sake of the wearer but for the sake of those who encounter the wearer. But without other people, why worry about how you look to other people? And if the last woman would dispense with makeup, the last man would stop worrying about how his haircut looked—and in particular wouldn’t worry about how his haircut looked from behind. Presumably, he would care only about practical matters, such as how a haircut felt and how easy his hair was to keep clean—assuming that he keeps his hair clean for his own sake and not to impress other people.

If we compare the lifestyle of the last person with our own, we will quickly recognize the impact the presence of other people has on our lives. We dress, choose a house, and buy a wristwatch with other people in mind. We spend a small fortune to project an image calculated to gain the admiration of these other people—or perhaps to make them envy us. We suppress ourselves and our desires in conformance with the image we wish to project. And to finance our image-projection activities, we might spend our adult life working at a job we hate. Were we to find ourselves in the situation described in the last-person scenario, we would be freed from humanity, and as a result our material existence would be radically simplified.

Crypto Flight To Tether

When sentiment in nascent Crypto markets turn ugly and people want out there are a few options.

  1. Flight to one of the larger/more stable currencies like bitcoin – unhelpful if entire ecosystem is undergoing a correction, as now.
  2. Flight to Fiat – invariably via a large exchange. Decision wether to keep funds in-situ or withdraw to bank account completely. Withdrawing makes market re-entry down the line much slower and more cumbersome. Keeping fiat in an exchange poses its own risks.
  3. Going short – expensive, non-trivial for newbies.
  4. Convert to Tether.

Tether is a crypto whose supply is backed 1-to-1 with USD held in it’s reserves and pegged 1-to-1 with USD. Effectively a cryptographic dollar. It can be bought and sold instantly at par value. Tether is a simple elegant way to hedge against crypto volatility whilst maintaining rapid ability to re-enter crypto markets. And it’s doing well.

USD reserves have jumped from $50m earlier this year to $290m today. It’s clearly solving a need and with likely volatility a long-term factor in crypto likely to see increasing inbound fund flows. Tether Ltd itself, is a private company and does not have a tradeable token. So outside of using Tether as a hedge, there’s no way to profit from it.

Important to note, there is large counterparty risk to holding Tether. The company could abscond with the USD/funds could be seized etc.

From Tether’s White Paper

Step 1 ­ User deposits fiat currency into Tether Limited’s bank account.

Step 2 ­ Tether Limited generates and credits the user’s tether account. Tethers enter circulation. Amount of fiat currency deposited by user = amount of tethers issued to user (i.e. 10k USD deposited = 10k tetherUSD issued).

Step 3 ­ Users transact with tethers . The user can transfer, exchange, and store tethers via a p2p open­source, pseudo­anonymous, Bitcoin ­based platform.

Step 4 ­ The user deposits tethers with Tether Limited for redemption into fiat currency.

Step 5 ­ Tether Limited destroys the tethers and sends fiat currency to the user’s bank account. Users can obtain tethers outside of the aforementioned process via an exchange or another individual.

Once a tether enters circulation it can be traded freely between any business or individual. For example, users can purchase tethers from Bitfinex, with more exchanges to follow soon. The main concept to be conveyed by the Flow of Funds diagram is that Tether Limited is the only party who can issue tethers into circulation (create them) or take them out of circulation (destroy them). This is the main process by which the system solvency is maintained.

 

New Data on Drivers of Income Insecurity

I’ve been interested in the drivers and ramifications of income insecurity for some time. Its one of the most significant problems of our age. It’s tentacles affect all areas of life and society.

A core narrative underpinning workforce casualisation has been the accelerating pace of technological innovation. Robots/Gig Economy/AI etc. Recent research from The Learnings & Works Institute show this is not necessarily the case.

The same research does however confirm another key narrative about insecure work, namely it is a drain on productivity.

 

Appeal To Authority – Reduxed

We know appeal to authority (argumentum ad verecundiam) is a logical fallacy.

Just because x is an authority on a topic, don’t automatically take what they say about it as correct. Never submit your own understanding to someone else’s just because they’re an expert.

Logical fallacies are usually framed as things you need to defend against. Be aware of them. Don’t get caught by them.

It was interesting to see appeal to authority framed the opposite way in a recent post on Farnam St, Ten Commandments For Living From Philosopher Bertrand Russell. Betrand cautions not using them as an offensive weapon either.

“When you meet with opposition, even if it should be from your husband or your children, endeavour to overcome it by argument and not by authority, for a victory dependent upon authority is unreal and illusory”

A hollow victory is no victory at all. Logical fallacies – don’t get caught by them, yet don’t use them either.

 

Crypto: Live By Speculation. Die By Speculation

 

The bear market continues with all the major cryptos deep in the red for another day.

I’d always seen bitcoin as the reserve currency in the space and the destination of choice during a flight to safety from other currencies and assets. Trend graphs show differently. Entire crypto market moving in lockstep with each other. Implying flight to safety is back to fiat, invariably through one of the major exchanges.

So long as fiat remains in situ at an exchange and doesn’t get withdrawn completely, investors and traders can re-enter the crypto market quickly and easily. Once funds are withdrawn however, its a much bigger emotional jump to re-engage with crypto. Making this bear market far more likely to continue throughout the summer with investors only re-entering when the bitcoin block size/segwit debacle has been resolved.

Change is as good as a rest

Jumped on the train this morning to join my family who had spent the weekend on the Kent coast.

A train ride out the city and through the glorious countryside. Lazy BBQ lunch. A little sea air. Lolz with the kids. Then back on the train home.

8 hour round trip. Hectic yet rejuvenating. Ready to smash the week ahead.

Meditation Run Streak

I noticed this message after my meditation session this morning. How time flies.

I started using Headspace a few months ago. I had a bunch of projects coming to a head simultaneously. I was out of balance and needed a reset. I could feel real positive changes within a few weeks of starting a daily practice.

My key realisation so far is we’re not our thoughts or our feelings. Meditation teaches how to distance yourself from them and not have your identity interlocked with them. The ramification of that internalisation benefits all areas of life.

I may move on from Headspace to Calm or some of the other mindfulness apps. But my daily practice, that’s staying. I’m enjoying it so much, I recently took up Yoga.

“If you’re too busy to meditate for 10 minutes a day, you need to do it for 20”.

Who’s Going To Pay You On Friday?

Alan Sugar is one of Britain’s wealthiest and most successful entrepreneurs. From humble beginnings in an East London council flat he built his company, Amstrad, into an electronics giant, amassing a rumoured billion-pound fortune in the process. In its heyday, Amstrad had dominant market share in personal computers and stereos throughout Europe.

Sugar is the quintessential bootstrapper. He starting trading out the back of a van, using his parents’ spare room as a makeshift warehouse. Hard work, drive and tight cost control allowed him to revolutionise consumer electronics by selling them for the first time at prices everyone could afford.

In his autobiography, Sugar writes how his father, who worked all his life in a cloth factory, had an “employee mentality” and couldn’t fathom why his son decided at 19 to leave a well paying job and start out on his own. Sugar says his dad was shocked at the decision and thought it a huge mistake.

Risking comfort and security for the promise of riches didn’t compute for someone who had worked on a factory line for decades. His first question to the future Lord Sugar was: “But who’s going to pay you on Friday?”

In my favourite line of the book, Sugar recalls himself responding firmly: “I’m going to pay myself on Friday!”

I’m going to pay myself on Friday!

That sentence is a perfect crystallisation of entrepreneurial grit and tenacity. It highlights perfectly the resolve and self-reliance needed to succeed. Reading those words made me want to roar like a lion! They excited me, gave me strength. They made me want to jump up and get back to work. To try harder. To do better.

How do they make you feel? Do they motivate and invigorate you, entice you to take more risks, be more daring? Or do they make you feel scared and vulnerable? Make you want to retreat to the comfort of conventional employment?

Successful entrepreneurship boils down to one thing. A simple decision which affects all others. A single question you have to answer.

Who’s going to pay you on Friday?

The Value Of A Good Name

Sitting at the barbers today and an elderly man walked in. I recognised him as an old vendor and acquaintance of my late father.

I’d never spoken to him in my life and had no intention of introducing myself. For some reason the barber asked if we knew each other. I decided to break cover. I told him my name and that many years ago my father and him had done a little business together.

His eyes glistened and he began to regale what a special man my father was. How he was hardworking, honest and straight. How he was smart, dependable and fair. How he was a man of integrity and kindness. The man spoke loudly. The barber and other customers in the shop heard every word.

Locked in the barber’s chair, listening to this man recount my father’s character traits, unable to move and slightly overwhelmed, I came to a realisation.

Of all the incredible things my beloved father gave me, the most important was a good name to live up to.